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Re: General Scoping Recommendations/Discussion
Q&A notes as shared by Tall Timbers on today's (08.26.2020) technical review call: 1)How are you spatially assigning active fire detections with burned area products? We have not developed a methodology to do that at this time, however this is of interest as we continue to explore how active fire detections may contribute to burned area products and might be used as ancillary data. 2) How did you tag active fire detections with FFS OBA? Through temporal matching and then visual analysis. No automated method with our approach, although an automated approach would need to be developed for larger regional analysis.  Given the issues with OBA’s we would have to evaluate  if this would be a useful exercise. 3) How does Tall Timbers get around the inherent problems with the prescribed fire records? We acknowledge the limitations of these data and use them as general location of the treatment.  Depending on the source, many of the fire records do not represent the true area that was burned. 4) Is there a leading fire mapping standard in use which would support improved compatibility? – Considering both RS and stakeholder database systems. Fire mapping standards vary between agencies and private landowners with regards to mapping and attribution.  There have been some efforts to combine UDSA (FACTS) and DOI (NFPORS) treatment datasets using WFM RD&A’s Fuel Treatment Integrator so data can be standardized for applications such as IFTDSS, WFDSS, EGP, etc.  For RS datasets and products, each has standardized attribution specific to the sensor or product. 5) Can FL database be a surrogate for other state permitting systems? The FL database is a remote sensing application that produces fire history metrics based on burn probability from LANDSAT BA products.  Each state has it’s own system for tracking burn authorizations.  A standardized permitting system might be best coordinated through the Southern Group of State Foresters. 6) Could TTRS potentially create some kind of a fire probability layer? This could be done by examining convergence of all fire detections or potentially by assigning probability to the modelling process. Very good question and the short answer is yes Tall Timbers is working on prescribed fire probability mapping based on RS data as well as climatology, fuels, vegetation, etc.  This is active but unpublished research currently being conducted by our Fire Science folks. 7) Would it be worth considering including in the final scope of work a requirement to assess which burn permits were fulfilled (or a subset of permits)? That would allow statements like “Of the X burn permits in 2020, Y% of permits actually resulted in a fire. Of those, Z% were detected by satellites.” This would be challenging as there is no reporting mechanism for state burn permits to be reported complete or acres burned verified.  Additionally, spatial accuracy of the permit location is problematic given that burn permits can be up to 2km from actual permitted location and single points representing multiple burn units can be up to ~ 10 km away [Nowell et al., 2018]  The use of reference imagery would be insufficient to overcome these challenges. 8) Incorporating permit data will be critical to attribute the satellite-based fire/burned area detection as prescribed fire. Agree that permit data would be the best source of attribution but unsure of how to overcome challenges. 9) Is the focus of the SE FireMap and current scoping effort focused on only prescribed fire? No, we accept that the final product will be RS based and there is not differentiation between wildfire and prescribed fire.  The interim report may have been confusing in this aspect as we used permit records and prescribed fire landowner records as a focus for detection analysis.  We recognize that both wildfire and prescribed fire result in ecological change on the landscape and are both important. 10) TTRS should consider evaluating commercial RS products as part of the scoping process. Tall Timbers has conducted literature review of several mapping efforts using commercial satellites.  We are aware of several studies that have successfully used commercial products to produce burned area and burn severity maps of small scale plots, we have seen no regional applications.  The reason for this is the high cost of commercial imagery.  For example, WorldView-3 that has been used in several studies by Tall Timbers collaborators in the New Jersey Pine Barrens cost ~$22.50 per SqKm.  Considering that Florida is 170,000 SqKm alone and revisit time of < 2 days, obtaining even 1 year of imagery would be cost prohibitive for the SE.  Additionally, beyond a more in depth literature review and providing commercial pricing for sensors to the TOT, Tall Timbers does not have access to commercial imagery to further evaluate. 11) SEFireMap product definition should include additional target accuracy metrics. In addition to   the current desired detection threshold for fire size (5-10 acres), consider omission/commission error and how to appropriately set bounds We would defer to the published accuracy assessments of sensors and products reviewed in the scoping phase and NRCS to set appropriate bounds for the SE FireMap. 12) Consider fostering discussion with DOD about accessibility of military satellite data? Andy Beavers shared contacts and offered to reach out... Tall Timbers would be happy to review any DOD remotely sensed burned area or fire detection products.  Once we have a chance to assess the products we would certainly be interested in a discussion of how military satellite data could be incorporated into the SE FireMap.
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Re: General Scoping Recommendations/Discussion
  Hi Everyone, Sorry it has taken me so long to get the scoping report.  I read through the documents.  I like the information the TT team pulled together and they did a great job of highlighting the issues with all available fire data sources.  I have a few comments for the group that I hope are useful. Best wishes, Todd 2020.07.15 - SEFireMap Scoping Report -GR-000000394- - Tall Timbers.pdf Report Narrative: "The overall aim of the Scoping process for the SE FireMap is to develop a robust understanding of the data sources and reporting capabilities that are available for advanced monitoring of prescribed fires on private lands." This is a more narrow scope than the original charter/scoping RFP states "An improved, cohesive system to track both prescribed fire and wildfire activity on public and private lands will serve as a critical decision support tool to maximize the effectiveness of fire management practices – helping achieve the varied objectives of NRCS and its partners such as keeping working lands working, restoring the longleaf pine ecosystem, supporting DoD’s military and training mission, conserving listed and at-risk species, managing for wildfire risk, and minimizing the need to conserve species through regulation." I agree that prescribed fires on private lands are important, but I think the SEFireMap should include all fires on all lands. SE FireMap Scoping INT REP 2.pdf: The Executive Summary here does a better job of capturing the spirit of SEFireMap in the intro paragraph.  It also highlights the problems/gaps with current reporting systems. Background section does a nice job of listing fire history metrics critical for management (e.g. time since fire).  These are things that should be required in the final scope of work. The summary switches to focusing on prescribed fire.  This is a real data gap, but it would be worth identifying which data sources are currently available to monitor wildfires and justification for why SEFireMap doesn't need to focus on wildfires.  For example, does MTBS do an adequate job of tracking wildfires in the SE? The figures provided nice examples of the capabilities of different sensors/datasets to map prescribed burns.  None of them look perfect! I like the examples linking burn permits to different sensors too.  This seems a promising approach, but the uncertainties in the burn permit data will make it difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of any prescribed fire mapping.  Would it be worth considering including in the final scope of work a requirement to assess which burn permits were fulfilled (for a subset of recent permits)?  That would allow statements like "Of the X burn permits issued in 2020, Y% of permits actually resulted in a fire. Of those, Z% were detected by satellites..." We should discuss how much detail we should put into the final scope of work.  Tall Timber's work seems to indicate that there is no perfect data source and developing a method to identify common detection could be most promising.  Incorporating permit data will be critical to attribute the satellite based fire/burned area detection as prescribed fires.  
Partner Engagement & Coordination
 
Re: Partner Engagement & Coordination
RE: July 23rd TOT Meeting Jim Smith Mon, Jul 27, 1:05 PM (1 day ago) I wanted to provide another set of contacts….we have to stop looking at some point but I leave that decision up to you. Tom Spencer, Texas Forest Service: was (and may still be) the lead on the Southern Risk Assessment portal.  tspencer@tfs.tamu.edu Danny Lee, USFS, Lead for the Southern Forest Threat Assessment Center in Asheville.  Danny.c.lee@usda.gov Danny contracts a lot with Jim Fox at UNC Asheville has a lot of “data contacts” around the SE.  jfox@nemacfernleaf.com Jim ---------------------------------------------------------- James L. Smith, Ph.D. TNC LANDFIRE Program Lead 904.327.0055 (cell/office) jim_smith@tnc.org 1822 Swiss Oaks Street St. Johns, FL 32259-9096